Despite forecasts for a 150,000-ton global surplus in the 2024/25 season, the cocoa market remains volatile due to ongoing climate-related threats. Recent dry spells and adverse weather continue to pose risks to harvests, especially in West Africa. While global production is increasing, the stock-to-grindings ratio is projected to rise only slightly to 30%—still the second-lowest since 2008/09. Global consumption trends are mixed, with modest growth in North America and Asia offset by declines in Europe. Meanwhile, small chocolatiers face mounting challenges adapting to high prices and unstable supply chains.

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Researchers from European and U.S. universities analyzed data from over 150,000 cocoa farms and manual pollination trials to propose Smart Agroforestry Systems (SAS) that combine high yields with biodiversity conservation. Their study shows that manual pollination can triple cocoa productivity and double annual farmer profits in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia—potentially increasing global supply by 13%. This method addresses the impacts of climate change and plant disease by promoting resilient and sustainable agricultural practices. The researchers advocate for SAS adoption through green certifications, carbon markets, and deforestation-free sourcing commitments.

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Cocoa futures on the ICE dropped more than 10% on Wednesday, reaching $8,212 per ton, after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected a global surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024/25 crop year. The surplus is attributed to improved farm practices encouraged by high prices and reduced consumer purchases due to elevated costs.

This forecast marks a reversal after three consecutive years of deficits that depleted global cocoa stocks. Additionally, cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports increased by 15.8% year-over-year, signaling stronger supply. The news triggered a sharp selloff in the market, with speculators reducing their net long positions by 5,866 contracts as of February 25.

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Farmers in Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, are expressing concerns over below-average rainfall during a critical period of the April-to-September mid-crop season. The country is currently in its main rainy season, which typically spans from April to mid-November. However, recent data shows significant shortfalls in rainfall, with regions like Soubre receiving only 0.8 mm last week—28.5 mm below the five-year average.

Other key cocoa regions including Agboville, Divo, Abengourou, Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro also experienced insufficient or irregular rainfall. Farmers stress that abundant rainfall in May and June is vital for the development of young cocoa pods and fear significantly reduced yields if conditions do not improve. Despite the weather challenges, cocoa harvesting is underway, with a steady increase in bean availability expected until late June, and farmers reporting satisfaction among buyers with bean quality.

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This study presents an ensemble-based approach for cocoa pod disease classification by integrating transfer learning with three ensemble learning strategies: Bagging, Boosting, and Stacking. Pre-trained convolutional neural networks, including VGG16, VGG19, ResNet50, ResNet101, InceptionV3, and Xception, were fine-tuned and employed as base learners to detect three disease categories: Black Pod Rot, Pod Borer, and Healthy.

A balanced dataset of 6,000 cocoa pod images was curated and augmented to ensure robustness against variations in lighting, orientation, and disease severity. Experimental results show that Bagging consistently achieved superior classification performance with a test accuracy of 100%, outperforming Boosting (97%) and Stacking (92%).

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The global cocoa market continues to experience significant volatility in 2025, driven by a combination of adverse weather conditions and growing regulatory pressure. ICE-monitored cocoa stockpiles in the U.S. have fallen to their lowest levels in 19 years, reflecting tight global supply. In West Africa, erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts have negatively impacted yields, while uncertainty around the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)—which takes effect in December 2024—has raised concerns about the legality and traceability of cocoa exports. Producers and exporters are struggling to adapt, with many lacking the infrastructure to meet the EUDR’s strict due diligence and geolocation tracking requirements.

Although recent improvements in Ivorian port shipments suggest some supply relief, the broader market remains anxious about mid- and long-term disruptions. Analysts suggest that volatility will persist as buyers and regulators navigate the shifting cocoa landscape.

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On May 10, 2025, cocoa futures open interest rose by 5,025 contracts, reaching a total of 332,266 on ICE Futures. The increase suggests that market participants are regaining confidence in the cocoa sector, likely influenced by forecasts of a 2024/25 surplus and signs of improving weather in West Africa. Traders appear optimistic that increased production will ease the record-high prices seen in 2024, even as underlying risks—such as plant disease, smuggling, and regulatory constraints—remain present.

The jump in trading activity could also be linked to speculative interest or hedging strategies by manufacturers bracing for continued volatility. Overall, the futures uptick reflects cautious optimism for a more balanced cocoa market in the coming months.

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Cocoa prices have dropped more than 30% in 2025, falling below $8,000 per ton after reaching a record high of $12,931 in 2024. This steep decline is largely due to forecasts of improved production in major cocoa-producing countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, alongside a projected global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season.

Favorable weather and a rebound in port shipments have further contributed to alleviating supply concerns. However, the market remains cautious, as the sector still faces challenges, including crop diseases, climate variability, and EU deforestation regulations. Despite the price drop, the overall tone of the market is stabilizing, with hopes that higher supply will balance out recent volatility.

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Analysts predict significant food price volatility in 2025 due to extreme weather events, with cocoa and coffee prices having doubled over the past year. Research by Inverto highlights a correlation between unexpected weather patterns and steep rises in food commodity prices. Higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures in producing regions have disrupted cocoa and coffee production, leading to supply shortages and price hikes.

Other commodities, such as sunflower oil, orange juice, butter, and beef, have also been affected by adverse weather conditions. Experts emphasize the importance of diversifying supply chains and reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future food price shocks driven by climate change.

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Shoppers across the U.S. have reported the disappearance of Aldi's Baker's Corner Baking Cocoa powder from store shelves, leading to widespread concern among loyal customers. The shortage appears to be nationwide, with customers from various states noting the product's absence. While Aldi has not officially commented, social media discussions suggest that global supply chain challenges, particularly environmental issues in West Africa, are contributing factors.

West Africa, responsible for 60% of the world's cocoa production, has faced climate-related challenges affecting cocoa yields. These disruptions have led to a global cocoa shortage and record-high prices, impacting retailers and consumers alike. Some Aldi shoppers have mentioned that store employees hinted at the cocoa powder's potential return, but for now, the product remains unavailable.

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The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season, marking the first surplus in four years. This anticipated surplus is attributed to a 7.8% increase in global cocoa production, reaching 4.84 million metric tons. Contributing factors include favorable weather conditions in West Africa and increased investments in cocoa farming due to previously high prices.

However, demand is expected to decrease by 4.8%, influenced by high cocoa prices leading to reduced consumption. Major chocolate manufacturers have reported financial challenges, with some considering recipe reformulations and price adjustments. The combination of rising supply and declining demand has led to a decrease in cocoa prices, providing some relief to the market.

Full article available here: Link

Analysts predict significant food price volatility in 2025 due to extreme weather events, with cocoa and coffee prices having doubled over the past year. Research by Inverto highlights a correlation between unexpected weather patterns and steep rises in food commodity prices. Higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures in producing regions have disrupted cocoa and coffee production, leading to supply shortages and price hikes.

Other commodities, such as sunflower oil, orange juice, butter, and beef, have also been affected by adverse weather conditions. Experts emphasize the importance of diversifying supply chains and reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future food price shocks driven by climate change.

Full article available here: Link

In Nigeria, a surge in cocoa prices has prompted a wave of professionals and young men, dubbed "cocoa boys," to return to farming in cocoa-producing regions like Ikom, Cross River State. Driven by prices rising from around $2,200 per metric ton in 2022 to nearly $11,000 in late 2024, thousands have joined the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, including former engineers, bankers, and scientists. The high returns, drastically outpacing earnings in traditional professions, have revitalized interest in cocoa farming and stimulated rural economies.

However, official cocoa output statistics remain stagnant, potentially due to large-scale smuggling—up to 200,000 tons annually. The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria has seen a spike in demand for seedlings, indicating rising future production. While many new farmers still maintain secondary jobs, the profitability of cocoa farming is leading some to consider full-time commitments.

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Shoppers across the U.S. have reported the disappearance of Aldi's Baker's Corner Baking Cocoa powder from store shelves, leading to widespread concern among loyal customers. The shortage appears to be nationwide, with customers from various states noting the product's absence. While Aldi has not officially commented, social media discussions suggest that global supply chain challenges, particularly environmental issues in West Africa, are contributing factors.

West Africa, responsible for 60% of the world's cocoa production, has faced climate-related challenges affecting cocoa yields. These disruptions have led to a global cocoa shortage and record-high prices, impacting retailers and consumers alike. Some Aldi shoppers have mentioned that store employees hinted at the cocoa powder's potential return, but for now, the product remains unavailable.

Full article available here: Link

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season, marking the first surplus in four years. This anticipated surplus is attributed to a 7.8% increase in global cocoa production, reaching 4.84 million metric tons. Contributing factors include favorable weather conditions in West Africa and increased investments in cocoa farming due to previously high prices.

However, demand is expected to decrease by 4.8%, influenced by high cocoa prices leading to reduced consumption. Major chocolate manufacturers have reported financial challenges, with some considering recipe reformulations and price adjustments. The combination of rising supply and declining demand has led to a decrease in cocoa prices, providing some relief to the market.

Full article available here: Link

Brazil's cocoa sector is anticipated to encounter further difficulties in 2025, following a significant production drop in 2024. Anna Paula Losi, executive president of the Brazilian Association of Cocoa Processing Industries, reported that production fell to 179,000 metric tons in 2024, down from 220,000 tons the previous year.

This output is insufficient to meet domestic processing demands, highlighting the need for improved productivity and expansion into new cultivation areas. Efforts to enhance yields and develop new plantations are essential for Brazil to meet internal demand and re-establish itself as a significant exporter in the global cocoa market.

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The year 2024 marked a record high for cocoa prices, with international quotations increasing by 170%, reaching $11,241 per ton. This surge has had a cascading effect on consumer products, particularly chocolate. According to Assoutenti, the average price of a 100-gram chocolate bar in Italy rose from €1.26 in 2021 to €1.60 in 2024, a 27% increase.

To mitigate costs, manufacturers have reduced the size of chocolate bars, with some shrinking from the standard 100 grams to as little as 60 grams, without a corresponding price decrease. This trend, known as "shrinkflation," is expected to persist into 2025, affecting various consumer goods beyond chocolate.

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The cocoa industry is grappling with the severe impacts of climate change, as extreme weather events in West Africa have led to unprecedented price increases. In 2024, record rainfall followed by prolonged droughts devastated cocoa crops in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, and Nigeria—countries responsible for 70% of global cocoa production.

These conditions have resulted in a 400% surge in cocoa prices, reaching over $12,500 per ton by December 2024. The situation is exacerbated by factors such as pest infestations, illegal mining, and regulatory challenges related to deforestation. Experts warn that without significant intervention, the cocoa supply chain will continue to face volatility and sustainability issues.

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Cocoa prices have experienced a significant decline, dropping approximately 25% since the beginning of the year and reaching levels 40% below the historic peak observed in mid-December 2024. This downturn is attributed to a forecasted surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024/2025 season, as reported by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).

The surplus is driven by a 7.8% increase in supply and a 4.8% decrease in demand compared to the previous year. Investor sentiment has also shifted, with a notable reduction in long positions, leading to the lowest net positions since April 2024. Despite the current decline, the long-term upward trend remains intact, with the $7,000 level acting as a key support for the cocoa market.

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This review paper offers an in-depth look at cocoa's nutritional properties, examining both its agronomic production and its health benefits. The study compares the antioxidant content of cocoa with that of tea and wine, noting its high potential for health-promoting effects. It discusses how adding milk to chocolate may affect the bioavailability of cocoa polyphenols.

Sensory qualities, microbiological safety, and potential toxicological risks are also considered. The review includes comparative analyses of single-origin dark chocolates from several countries, highlighting how geographical origin affects mineral composition, polyphenol levels, and overall nutritional value. The findings underscore cocoa's role not just as a treat, but as a functional food.

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This research explores cocoa residues discovered in archaeological ceramics across North America, shedding light on its ceremonial role in prehistoric societies. Using chemical analysis, the researchers identified theobromine—a biomarker of cacao—in pottery fragments dating between 900 and 1300 AD. These findings support the hypothesis that cocoa was traded across long distances and used in spiritual or ritual activities.

The paper provides critical insights into the cultural significance of cacao in pre-Columbian societies, emphasizing its symbolic and economic value. It also raises broader questions about trade networks and interregional connections in ancient Mesoamerica.

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Researchers from the Fraunhofer Institute and the University of Giessen conducted a detailed study on the aroma profiles of cocoa fruit pulp from several geographical origins. The analysis revealed significant variations in volatile compounds responsible for flavor, depending on the origin of the fruit.

These differences can significantly influence the final taste of chocolate, making the selection of cocoa origin a strategic element for manufacturers aiming for specific sensory qualities. The study underscores the growing importance of origin in the chocolate industry, not only from a branding perspective but also in terms of flavor design.

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This academic paper from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice analyzes the cocoa sector by comparing fair trade and conventional chocolate. It investigates the entire value chain, the main actors involved, and critical challenges such as climate change, farmer poverty, child labor, and deforestation. The research explains the goals and certification criteria of the fair trade system and its effects on producer communities.

It highlights economic benefits, better working conditions, women’s empowerment, and community development as outcomes of adopting fair trade. The study also explores consumer perceptions, including the factors influencing purchasing decisions and willingness to pay more for ethically produced chocolate. Ultimately, it encourages more sustainable and equitable production and consumption practices.

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Europe imported 1.8 million tonnes of cocoa beans in 2023, but imports have declined by 2% annually since 2019. This is largely due to producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana increasingly processing beans locally into semi-finished products such as cocoa paste and butter, rather than exporting raw beans.

Cocoa grinding — a key step in processing — is slowly shifting from Europe to producing countries. While Europe still leads globally, the Ivory Coast has become the largest grinding nation, overtaking the Netherlands. In 2023, local processing in Ivory Coast represented 35–40% of its total cocoa production.

Both cocoa production and grinding declined significantly in 2023–2024 due to reduced yields in key African regions. Meanwhile, European demand for certified and sustainable cocoa remains high, pushing regulatory and sourcing shifts in response to sustainability pressures and inflationary constraints.

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The European Cocoa Coalition — a group of companies and civil society organizations — has released a strong appeal urging the European Union to take decisive action to ensure the sustainability of the cocoa sector.

Effective Implementation of New Regulations: The coalition demands urgent and coordinated enforcement of the EU Deforestation Regulation, the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, and the Forced Labour Regulation, to prevent further exploitation and environmental damage linked to cocoa supply chains.

Partnerships with Cocoa-Producing Countries: It calls for long-term partnerships and financial support programs to help producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana meet new sustainability standards without placing unfair burdens on smallholder farmers.

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Recent heavy rainfall in the main cocoa-producing regions of Ivory Coast is bringing great optimism among local farmers. The mid-crop harvest, which typically occurs between May and September, benefits significantly from well-distributed rains and mild temperatures.

According to local agricultural associations, the quality of the cocoa beans is expected to surpass that of previous years, potentially boosting exports and increasing farmers' income. A strong mid-crop season could also help stabilize the global cocoa market, which had been experiencing fluctuations due to previous droughts and climate-related challenges.

The Swiss multinational Nestlé has recently announced an average 2.1% price hike for its products, especially chocolates and coffees. The company explained that the main driver behind this decision is the significant rise in cocoa and coffee costs on the international markets, caused by adverse weather conditions that have reduced supply.

Consumers in Europe will feel the impact first, but other regions could also notice price adjustments. Nestlé emphasized that it continues investing in sustainable production practices, yet the unpredictable climate makes it necessary to pass some of the costs onto consumers.

Recently, major European chocolate companies have decided to scale back their hedging strategies against rising cocoa prices. Traditionally, many firms use futures contracts to protect themselves from price volatility, but now they are betting that the market has peaked.

This means companies are buying cocoa at spot prices without much fear of further sharp increases. Experts, however, warn that this approach carries risks, as weather patterns remain unpredictable and could again disrupt supply. Nevertheless, many chocolate producers believe that price stabilization is likely during the second half of 2025.

Easter 2025 saw chocolate eggs become significantly more expensive and thinner, reflecting the sharp surge in cocoa prices, which quintupled over 18 months. Production shortfalls in West Africa, driven by climate change and disease, contributed heavily to the crisis.

In response, manufacturers have shrunk product sizes and explored cocoa substitutes, including lab-grown alternatives. Artisanal chocolatiers advocate for viewing chocolate as a premium product, akin to fine wine or specialty coffee.

Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Sprüngli announced plans for another round of double-digit price increases in 2025, following a 6.3% hike in 2024. The company explained that persistent high cocoa prices make further adjustments necessary.

Lindt emphasized that elevated costs are a widespread issue across the chocolate industry and that price levels are unlikely to return to those of previous years anytime soon.

Swiss multinational Nestlé announced an average 2.1% price increase across its chocolate and coffee products. The company cited sharp rises in cocoa and coffee costs due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa. Despite an initial decline in demand, Nestlé recorded a 2.8% increase in first-quarter sales, largely driven by price adjustments.

The company also warned of potential impacts from global trade tariffs, particularly those proposed by the U.S.

Major chocolate producers across Europe are scaling back the use of futures contracts to hedge against cocoa price volatility. Following record price spikes and subsequent declines, many companies are now opting for spot purchases or fixed-cost insurance, betting that the market has peaked.

However, analysts warn that unpredictable weather and production risks could still create future price shocks.

Despite soaring cocoa prices, European premium chocolate brands such as Venchi, Domori, and Neuhaus have seen rising demand. While mass-market brands face falling sales, consumers increasingly prioritize quality and traceability.

This trend reflects a significant shift in European consumer behavior, favoring sustainability and authenticity even at higher prices.

The cocoa market experienced a sharp decline in prices after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasted a global surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024/25 season. Global production is expected to grow by 7.8% to 4.84 million tons.

Additionally, Nigeria reported a 27% rise in cocoa exports in January. These factors have provided much-needed relief to European chocolate manufacturers who have struggled with high input costs.

Recent reports show that global cocoa stocks monitored by ICE have fallen to their lowest levels in 21 years. Initial projections of a 2024/25 surplus have been revised to a deficit of up to 150,000 tons. The stock-to-grindings ratio has dropped to between 25% and 27%, the lowest in 46 years.

This drastic shortage may drive chocolate prices higher and force adjustments in production across Europe.

StoneX analysts predict a global cocoa surplus of 166,000 tons for the 2024/25 season, the first in four years. The outlook is supported by improved farming practices and favorable weather conditions in West Africa.

Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, is expected to boost its production by 12.1%, reaching 1.95 million tons. This potential surplus may ease chocolate prices for European manufacturers and consumers, after years of tight supply and rising costs.

On April 19, 2025, cocoa futures reached historic highs, with London prices at $12,567 per ton and New York at $11,878 per ton. The price surge is driven by reduced market liquidity and uncertainty about the upcoming harvest in West Africa.

Despite soaring costs, first-quarter 2025 grinding data exceeded expectations, suggesting that chocolate manufacturers are advancing their purchases to avoid future shortages. This strategy indicates a potential race for stockpiles amid ongoing market volatility.

The traditional Schoggifestival, held annually in Zurich, Switzerland, focused this year on themes related to responsible and sustainable chocolate consumption. Artisanal producers, major brands, NGOs, and research centers came together to discuss how cocoa supply chains can become more ethical, avoiding issues like illegal deforestation and child labor.

The festival featured tastings of chocolates made exclusively from fair-trade cocoa and hosted educational talks on sustainable certifications. The event highlighted the growing trend among European consumers to seek products that align with environmental and social values.

Analysts from the European bank ING have released a new forecast indicating that global cocoa production is expected to grow by about 8% in 2025. This growth is mainly driven by the recovery of farms in West Africa and the adoption of new agricultural technologies.

As a result, the market is likely to see better balance between supply and demand, reducing the extreme volatility seen in recent years. For consumers, this could mean more stable — or even slightly lower — prices for cocoa-based products such as chocolates, particularly in Europe. However, the report warns that climate risks remain a significant factor to watch.

In the week ending April 7, 2025, international cocoa futures experienced significant volatility. In New York, the most traded contract for May 2025 rose by 5.8%, closing the week at $8,512 per ton.

In London, the same contract rose by 1.3%, ending at £6,432 per ton. This price surge was driven by concerns about cocoa supply in West Africa. Local reports indicated that the second half of the 2024/25 season might yield 40% less cocoa compared to historical averages.

Additionally, Ivory Coast reported a notable contraction in weekly cocoa export volumes, increasing market risk perceptions. However, after April 2, gains from earlier in the week were erased due to a wave of futures contract liquidations. This shift came after the United States announced reciprocal import tariffs, creating a strong sense of global risk aversion in financial markets.

Easter 2025 was marked by significantly higher prices for cocoa-based products. Cocoa prices had almost tripled over two years, rising from approximately $2,900 per ton in March 2023 to over $8,000 by the end of March 2025.

This sharp increase is attributed to global production issues, especially in West African countries like Ghana and Ivory Coast, where adverse weather conditions caused major crop losses. As a result, consumers faced higher prices for Easter eggs and other chocolate treats. Experts also warned that the quality of chocolates available on the market could be affected, as some manufacturers may seek cheaper alternatives or adjust recipes to manage costs.