Market analysis
During the week of May 19–23, cocoa futures prices rebounded strongly, with July contracts on the ICE exchange closing the week near $11,800 per ton, recovering from earlier lows around $8,000 earlier in the month. This marks one of the most significant weekly gains since the start of 2025.
Worsening Weather Conditions in West Africa: New satellite and field reports indicate persistent drought stress in cocoa-producing regions of Ivory Coast and Ghana. Rainfall remains significantly below seasonal norms, especially in the Soubre and Daloa zones. These dry conditions are delaying pod development and raising fears of a smaller-than-expected mid-crop.
Further Decline in Certified Stocks: ICE-monitored inventories continued to drop, with U.S. port stocks reaching new multi-year lows. This reflects both current export slowdowns and lingering logistical disruptions in West Africa.
Slow Recovery in Global Production: Despite earlier forecasts of a partial rebound in supply during the second half of 2025, analysts now suggest those expectations may have been overly optimistic. Persistent structural issues—aging plantations, disease prevalence, and low farmer investment—remain unresolved.
Technical Buying and Market Sentiment: A breakout above key resistance levels triggered algorithmic and speculative buying. Additionally, weaker-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. led to a softer dollar, which increased investor appetite for dollar-denominated commodities like cocoa.
This week’s rally reinforces cocoa's status as one of the most volatile agricultural commodities of the year. While short-term gains are encouraging for producers, persistent supply-side risks and fragile logistics suggest continued market turbulence ahead.